- Get ready for some serious changes.
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Tuesday, November 6, 2018, Election Night in the United States was the starting gun for the 2020 election cycle. On this day, the Democrats captured the House and the Republicans secured the Senate. Translation: the American public opted for gridlock for two years.
The Democrats needed a victory in at least one chamber of Congress to prove they are still a viable political party. The election cost them a ton of money, not just in Congressional races, but in state races as well.
As Democrats take control of the House, Nancy Pelosi faces a challenge from members of her own party for the speaker's job. It will be an ugly contest she will most likely win. Their job for the next two years is to derail the Trump agenda. Even though we need it badly, do not look for any major legislation to pass, including the areas of immigration, health care, voter reform, electoral reform, or reduction in the federal debt. The House and the Senate are now officially at loggerheads.
The big question is whether the House will now move forward on impeaching the President. Even though such charges would be dismissed in the Senate, the Democrats may find the temptation to harass the President irresistible and attempt to slur him, and the Republicans, as we approach the 2020 election. If they do, this will become their Achilles Heel and people will react to it the way they did in the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. In other words, the Democrats will be risking everything if they pursue this route.
The Democrats though are experiencing an identity crisis internally. They couldn't win in 2016 with Progressive politics, and it appears the country has turned its back on Socialism. Now they have no standard bearer going into the 2020 presidential election, as their candidates are showing their age and politics:
Senator Bernie Sanders - at 79 (in 2020) is the oldest candidate and represents the Socialist agenda.
VP Joe Biden - at 77 (in 2020) is the second oldest, a Progressive, and unable to win convincingly in his own party.
Secretary Hillary Clinton - at 73 (in 2020) is said to want to take another crack at President Trump, but has likely lost the faithful in her own party.
Senator Elizabeth Warren - at 71 (in 2020) wants to run, but her far-left leanings will likely make her an ineffective candidate.
Younger possibilities may include New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (62 in 2020), Sen. Corey Booker (51), and Kamala Harris (56). However, this isn't about age, it's about the ideology of the party which the Democrats must sort out quickly. This leads me to believe the Democrats will nominate a dark-horse candidate in 2020, perhaps Michael Avenatti...(doubtful); more likely it will be former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg who will be 78 in 2020. Bloomberg has the financial resources, contacts and media smarts to make a run as a Moderate Democrat, but his age may cause him to balk at a run.
As to our Executive Branch of government, look for some serious changes to occur, including:
* The conclusion of the Mueller probe. If Special Counsel Robert Mueller cannot conclude his investigation before the end of the year, look for the President to bring it to an end as the country has grown weary of this sideshow.
* A clean-up of the Justice Department is likely in order - if the Mueller probe is not concluded quickly, look for heads to roll in the department.
* The President will continue to move forward on negotiating deals in order to reduce the trade deficit.
* The President will face stiff resistance from Democrats in the House for improving the economy as they are bent on raising taxes, not lowering them.
In the Supreme Court, Ruth Bader Ginsburg is showing her age (85). Even though she is determined to hang on, if she passes or is forced to retire for health reasons, President Trump will appoint another Justice. Aside from Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer (80) is another Justice who may want to retire. The next in line is Clarence Thomas (70), but he will likely stay on.
President Trump will continue to reshape the federal bench which will be his legacy for many years to come.
The American populace elected Donald Trump as president in 2016 as they didn't want "politics as usual." This resulted in desperate Democrats spending an inordinate amount of money to try and stop him. Now that they are in power, their gridlock and attempt at impeachment will turn the electoral landscape even muddier than we thought possible. If this happens, this will be the impetus for the American people to rise up and re-elect the President in 2020 and re-take the House.
Of course, the House Democrats could surprise me and try to work with the Republican Senate and the President towards some much needed legislation... Nah, it will never happen.
One last note, I would like to thank my readers who congratulated me on correctly predicting the results of the Florida race. The polls got it horribly wrong. It's not that I am a polling genius, I just know how to read voting data (I guess the news media cannot). More on this to come...
Keep the Faith!
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Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at email@example.com
For Tim's columns, see: timbryce.com
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Copyright © 2018 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.