Search This Blog

Thursday, January 30, 2020

LACKING FAITH IN POLITICAL POLLING

BRYCE ON POLITICS

- And how they are being used to confuse voters.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

As we enter another major electoral cycle, we begin to hear more from political polling organizations, most of which I do not trust. They were dead wrong in the 2016 presidential election. So much so, their credibility has yet to recover. I think it comes down to the methodology they use to conduct a poll. Some use general registered voters, some do not, some are strictly aimed at a particular political party, and others will take whoever has a pulse, be it a citizen or not.

All of the polls are aligned somehow with the news media and a political party. As such, they are there to make money to support their operations. They do not make money for predictable results, but rather by the unexpected, just like the sensational press. Consequently, they exist to create intrigue and controversy. This is helpful for their cause, but unfortunately it confuses voters who begin to question their favorite candidate's viability as a contender. This is precisely what they want. In other words, it is not in the polling institution's best interests to make accurate predictions, but to create voter anxiety in an attempt to create an addictive dependency on their service. This is why I no longer take political polling seriously as I have witnessed this drill so many times over the years.

Let's be clear, like the main stream media, most support the Democrat agenda. However, even the Republican leaning polls are trying to cast doubt among the voters in order to improve ratings. It is all about money.

Even ardent Republicans have doubts about the president's chances for re-election. It is one of those situations where if you tell people something enough times, they will eventually believe it (see “Political Branding”). Cooler heads know the president will easily win.

Over the years, I have studied the polls closely and reported on the progress of candidates. Personally, I rarely found the polls of the main stream media to be accurate. This includes those of: ABC/Washington Post, CBS, CNN, FOX, New York Times, Politico, and the Wall Street Journal/NBC. I cannot remember the last time a Fox poll ever got it right, nor NBC, CBS, ABC, etc. In 2016, night after night the news media quoted the polls to tell the public Donald Trump didn’t have a chance to win the nomination or the election. Remarkably, he won in spite of their predictions.

The remaining polls tend to be more independent but most still have some form of political connection. For example:


Founded in 1935 and headquartered in Washington, DC and Omaha, NE, Gallup is one of the oldest and most trusted polls. The CEO is Jim Clifton who is thought to lean Republican. Since its founder, George Gallup, passed away in 1984, the company was sold to Selection Research, Incorporated (SRI). Clifton may be a Republican (in name only), but his writings suggests he leans to the left.


Founded in 2004 and also headquartered in Washington, DC, Pew is a nonprofit, tax-exempt 501(c)3 organization and a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. The company was founded by the Times Mirror Company which was acquired by the Tribune Company in 2000. The Tribune Company owns the Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Orlando Sentinel, (Central Florida) Sun-Sentinel, The Baltimore Sun, (Allentown, Pennsylvania) The Morning Call, Hartford Courant, and the San Diego Union-Tribune, as well as many radio and TV stations, including superstation WGN. The President is Michael Dimock whose roots are from academia.


Founded in 2001 and headquartered in Raleigh, NC, PPP’s CEO is Dean Debnam, an admitted Democrat.


Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Asbury Park, NJ, the company was founded by Scott Rasmussen who is believed to lean Republican. However, he left the company in 2013 to pursue other interests. The company is now owned by Noson Lawen Partners (the majority investor), and there is no sign of the political inclinations of the company.
The three universities commonly quoted in polling are:


Their polling division was established in 2005, and is located in West Long Branch, NJ. The Director is Patrick Murray.


Their polling division was established in 1988, and located in Hamden, CT. The Director is Douglas Schwartz, PhD.


Their polling division was established in 2002, and is located in Boston, MA. The Director is David Paleologos.

Interestingly, all of the directors are careful about not disclosing their political inclinations. Aside from residing in the New England area, which tends to lean to the Democrats, there appears to be nothing in writing suggesting their political bias.

Other polls worth noting are:

* Investors Business Daily/TIPP - has been very accurate in their predictions.

* ISideWith.com - I have found this little known site to be very accurate in the primaries. Although it is intended to be a political matchmaking site that gives insight into how voters think, it is updated daily and provides surprisingly accurate data.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

The “Big Kahuna” of political polling is RealClearPolitics, the source most quoted by the news media. Surprisingly, most people are unaware of how it works and naively accept their findings as gospel. Basically, the company doesn’t conduct polls itself, but analyzes the polling data of others. It lists any poll and calculates an average.

For example:
ClintonTrump
Poll-A46%43%
Poll-B49%45%
Poll-C49%46%
AVG48%44.6%

Here is the rub though; what if the polls are biased, such as those mentioned earlier by the main stream media? Mixing tainted data with legitimate polls is mixing apples with oranges and will inevitably produce erroneous results, something you definitely do not want to bet the ranch on.
So, is the system rigged? If the main stream media is either quoting their own poll, or the averages from RealClearPolitics, then Yes, their credibility is highly questionable. However, knowing the news media's agenda, they will keep quoting these polling results over and over again until the public buys it.

Something to remember from the 2016 election; going into voting day, the polls said Mrs. Clinton had already clinched the election. Her supporters become too confident and failed to show up on election day, and we know the rest of the story. A similar phenomenon will likely occur again in the 2020 race where the polls and news media will claim a victory for the Democrats. What they fail to mention is how the Republicans distrust the media. Also, the impeachment hoax has energized the president's base and will encourage more people to vote. In all likelihood, the 2020 election will be the largest voter turnout in our history, and I didn't need a poll to figure this out.

So, is the system rigged? You betcha!

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form.

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

UNDERSTANDING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

BRYCE ON POLITICS

- No, it is not an educational institution, nor is it really difficult to understand.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

Note: As a candidate for president, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) recently raised eyebrows by calling for an end to the Electoral College. The college was one of the most brilliant inventions our founding fathers devised in order to create equitable representation in presidential elections. Perhaps the senator is unfamiliar with the concept, or perhaps she knows it to be an impediment to her party's regaining control of the White House. Whatever the case, here is what are founding fathers intended:

One of the biggest myths in American government is that the President and Vice President are directly elected by the people. Nothing could be further from the truth. Get it out of your head now. In fact, the Constitution mentions nothing of such a popular vote. Instead, the President and Vice President are INDIRECTLY elected by the people, and for good reason. Allow me to explain...

The vote for President and VP is actually a vote for the electors of the state who will later cast the true votes. This is usually done in accordance with the wishes of the voters of each state. However, each state has their own set of rules for selecting electors and how they will vote. Their only restraint, from a federal perspective, is they can only appoint as many electors as there are members of Congress representing their state. For example, Florida has two US Senators and 27 members of the House of Representatives, for a total of 29 electors, none of which may be members of Congress. Since each state uses a "winner-take-all" approach, most electors are members of the winning party.

The "Electoral College" is not an educational institution, but all of the electors of all of the states in the union along with the District of Columbia, for a total of 538 electors and a minimum of 270 votes to elect a president. After each state ratifies its electoral votes, it is sent to the nation's capitol for counting in a joint session of Congress on January 4th. The official count is later filed in the National Archives.

The big question though is, "Why do we vote this way?" Many people believe a popular vote should suffice. Fortunately, our founding fathers thought otherwise. At the time of the writing of the Constitution, America was primarily a rural country. However, cities like Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Charleston, had substantial populations. Conceivably, politicians could have won the popular vote simply by winning these urban areas. This would have meant the interests of the rural areas would have been ignored, or whole states completely. To overcome this problem, the framers of the Constitution devised the Electoral College to maintain parity between all of the states, including both rural and urban areas. In this way, the college protects the rights and interests of all states, not just those with large populations.

To illustrate, in the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore won the large metropolitan states, but George Bush won more of the smaller rural states. Based on the number of electoral votes, Bush won the election by a razor-thin number of votes, six. This meant that the interests of ALL of the states were considered, not just the "swing states."

Following the 2000 election, then Senator-elect Hillary Clinton, feeling that Al Gore had been cheated of the presidency, called for the elimination of the Electoral College. According to Hillary, "We are a very different country than we were 200 years ago. I believe strongly that in a democracy, we should respect the will of the people and to me, that means it's time to do away with the Electoral College and move to the popular election of our president." (Nov 10, 2000)

Obviously, Mrs. Clinton fails to understand we reside in a democratically elected republic, not a democracy. Admittedly, most Americans misunderstand the concept of the Electoral College, thereby making it fodder for debate. Nevertheless, the electoral college remains a fair and equitable approach for representing the interests of ALL of the states in the nation, not just those with large metropolitan areas. Without the electoral college, the large metropolitan areas would decide the direction of the country, not smaller towns and villages. In other words, cities such as New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, San Francisco and Los Angeles would dictate the interests of the country, and not places like Des Moines, Scranton, Chillicothe, Morgantown and Macon.

Consider this, if an Electoral College did not exist, there would be little point in holding a primary in such states as Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, etc. as the candidates would only concentrate on the most populated states, such as New York, Michigan, Illinois, California, Texas, and Florida. Everyone else would be irrelevant.

It is not rational to discard or abandon something simply because we do not understand it.

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form.

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

HUMAN RESOURCE DEPARTMENTS

BRYCE ON BUSINESS

- Is it out of control?

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

Years ago, companies had what was called "Personnel" departments that basically took care of employee records, dealt with labor relations, and promoted jobs internally within a company. It wasn't glamorous work, but it was necessary nonetheless. This function evolved and blossomed over the years to what is now referred to as the Human Resources Department. It went from basic record keeping to recruiting, training, benefits, career development, and much more. Yet, time and again, I hear from friends and contacts in corporate America who speak with disdain when the term "H.R." is brought up. When asked why, they describe it as a huge and lethargic bureaucracy which is more of an impediment than an expediter for conducting business.

One area that is frequently criticized is recruiting which I have heard characterized as a "black box" whereby both candidates and department managers wait weeks or months for H.R. to make the necessary arrangements, and process paperwork. Candidates are frustrated and feel like they are left in limbo. Consequently, they start to look for work elsewhere and the company loses potentially good employees. Department managers are likewise frustrated as they are anxious to tackle pressing projects and assignments. Some have become so frustrated, they hire consultants as opposed to going through the arduous H.R. process of hiring employees. They simply want to get the job done and don't have time for bureaucracy.

Understand this, H.R. would not be the behemoth it is today if we didn't live in a litigious society where everything seems to end up in court. It is no small wonder they are often referred to as the "PC Watchdogs" ("Politically Correct") as their mission, in part, is to keep the company out of court. From this perspective, perhaps the best way to think of H.R. is as a necessary evil.

The intent of H.R. is to bring standard and consistent practices in the use of Human Resources, which is good. However, if H.R. is perceived as a roadblock to progress, you have to wonder about its usefulness and question how it is organized. For example, should it be a centralized or decentralized function? Ideally, the H.R. department must remember it serves the rest of the company, not the other way around.

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form.

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Thursday, January 23, 2020

GOVERNMENT BEGINS AT HOME

BRYCE ON GOVERNMENT

- It all begins at the local level.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

For those Americans paying attention to the news, most are consumed by politics at the federal level. There is nothing wrong with this, but as I like to remind young Americans, "Government begins at home." By this I mean government affects us first and foremost at the municipal and county levels. If you have a fire, you contact the local fire department, not a federal agency; if you want to report a crime, you call the local police or Sheriff's office, not the Feds; if you have questions about your offspring's school, you contact the local School Board, not the Department of Education, and; If you have a problem with water and sewer, you contact the local public works/utilities offices. The same is true for road maintenance and traffic, everything begins at the local level, all of which has the greatest impact on us.

Interestingly, few people seem to be aware of this which explains why voters rarely turnout in local elections as opposed to state or federal elections. Because of this voter apathy, it is easier to seize political control at the local level, and quite often, politicians slip a tax increase by in these poorly attended elections.

The notion local government is the bedrock of all government was first observed in 1835 by noted historian and political commentator Alexis de Tocqueville, a Frenchman, as published in his famous book, "Democracy in America," which was an analysis of our young country as compared to those in Europe. This was based on his travels through America in 1831 and 1832. The book, which is frequently referenced even to this day, contains his observations on the young country, everything from its geographical layout, to its culture, and particularly its new political system as a democratically elected republic, as opposed to a monarchy.

In his book, de Tocqueville observed, "...the strength of free nations resides in the township." Whereas, European countries at the time consisted of monarchies, and a top-down approach to government, America had employed a bottom-up strategy instead. He also recognized, successful local government officials would likely progress up the ladder to state and federal positions. He wrote, "In France, the government lends its officers to the township - In America, the township lends its officers to the government." This bottom-up approach is still common to this day, and provides another reason why citizens should pay close attention to local elections. It represents the "farm club" for government at higher levels. Today's mayors, councilmen, police chiefs, prosecutors, public defenders, fire chiefs, and judges are tomorrow's governors, attorney generals, congressmen, supreme court justices, and more.

One reason why people do not spend much time understanding local government is because the local news media spends little time covering it with qualified reporters. Most think it is trivial and their time is better served at the state and federal levels. This is why town hall meetings are so important to communicate what exactly is going on locally.

As we approach the 2020 elections, we of course need informed citizens to vote accordingly on major issues, but we also need voters for what appears to be inconsequential local elections in March or throughout the summer. They are every bit as important.

Just remember, local government is the basic building block of our entire government. Support it, don't ignore it, as it has a great bearing on our lives.

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form.

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

PLEDGES, OATHS, VOWS & CODES

BRYCE ON MORALITY

- Do they mean anything anymore?

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

I have been watching the History Channel a lot lately. I find as I get older there is little on the "prime time" channels that interest me. Instead, I find myself drawn to documentaries, biographies, and history, as well as classic movies (you know, the films they made before computers and had real scripts). Recently, the History Channel has been running a series on modern day gangs, both in and out of the prison system, and I have found it to be very interesting. These are gangs who have gone way beyond the Sharks and the Jets; bloodthirsty groups who stop at nothing to dominate a territory and extort money any way they can.

During the documentary, several current and former gang members are interviewed. Interestingly, one of the main reasons they join a gang is to establish a sense of family, a desire to belong to something in order to feel wanted and accepted, which is something they were not getting at home, regardless if they have parents or not. They are willing to pay dearly for this too, and voluntarily take a binding oath and suffer through a harsh initiation ritual, all for the sense of belonging. Such blood oaths and initiations leaves a lasting impression on the individual who dares not leave the gang, partially in fear of the consequences, but more as they desperately want the sense of family.

During our lifetime, we make a lot of pledges, and take certain oaths and vows. For example:

* "To love, honor and obey, until death do us part."

* "To do my duty to God and my country and to obey the Scout Law."

* "I pledge allegiance to the flag..."

* "I will play fair, and strive to win, but win or lose, I will always do my best."

* "I, (name), do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic...; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God."

As an aside, I find it interesting that all such oaths related to serving in American government or military end with, "So help me God."

These pledges are all nice and sound impressive, but I find few people take them seriously anymore and reject them when it suits them. In other words, there is no real commitment to stand behind our words. Consider, for example, "The Journalist's Creed" or the "Hippocratic Oath" as administered to physicians. If you read them carefully, you have to wonder how many people truly adhere to them.

Mechanisms such as pledges, oaths and vows are intended to define our code of conduct. This, of course, refers to our honor and ability to keep our word, something people use as a measurement of trust. I find it interesting that criminals have a higher regard for such things as opposed to John Q. Public. Maybe its because the criminal code has stiff penalties which will undoubtedly be executed if violated, and the person knows it. In our society though, there is no real penalty for violating our obligations, least of all shame or embarrassment. In other words, taking an oath or vow has become a joke in our society, and as long as it remains a shallow inconsequential ceremony, it will always be regarded as nothing more than a triviality to be implemented only when it is convenient to do so.

It's no small wonder why today we have a deterioration of ethics, both in our homes and in the work place. It is one thing to enact legislation, quite another to enforce it. You can make all the pledges, oaths, vows, and codes you want, but if there is no real consequence for violating them, there is little point in administering them. The criminal class understands this. John Q. Public does not.

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form.

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Thursday, January 16, 2020

PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT?

BRYCE ON TECHNOLOGY

- Does computer technology truly improve life?

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

I have been using computer technology since the 1970's. I have used mainframes of all kind, e.g., IBM and the rest of the BUNCH (Burroughs, Univac, NCR, CDC, and Honeywell); minis including DEC VAX/VMS (a personal favorite), HP-3000/MPE, and AS/400; and PC's with Windows and the world's best operating system, OS/2. And, Yes, I have also used smart phones and smart televisions. All of these machines are intended to improve productivity, and perhaps they have, but the jury is still out as far as I'm concerned. The fact remains, the government does not have analytical data to demonstrate whether technology honestly improves productivity. Perhaps the closest thing is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but that is a measure of output only, not the process by which it is produced.

Technology has undoubtedly improved communications, but it has also caused more traffic accidents through abuse of smart phones. It has improved our ability to wage war, but at an incredible cost, thereby adding to the national debt. Even though technology is intended to improve life, it often becomes counterproductive due to misapplication by users, but blame the programmers who fail to make it intuitive to use.

Let me give you three simple examples to demonstrate my point:

First, as many of you know, I have served on over 50 Nonprofit Board of Directors. Along the way, I have opened quite a few bank accounts for the various organizations. This typically required some simple paperwork, the signing of an application and signature cards. Elapsed time, fifteen minutes (tops). Just recently, as the new Secretary of my Homeowners Association, I helped open a new account with a local reputable bank with a big name. I was joined by the President and Treasurer on our visit to the bank. We dutifully supplied the necessary paperwork, but spent considerable time setting up the account on the computer, along with prepping for electronic banking. Elapsed time, 2.5 hours. Needless to say, this ruined the rest of our afternoon.

Second, I wanted to begin working out again at a local gym. I discovered my Medicare supplement insurance provider would pay for my monthly membership, which makes sense as it encourages a healthy lifestyle. So, I Called my provider to apply for a special code to join the gym. I thought this would be rather quick and simple. Wrong. After traversing voice mail jail and waiting in queue, I was transferred to four different people throughout the United States. I finally found the right person who issued my special code, but it tested my patience. Elapsed time, 20 minutes for a simple code number.

Third, my mother tried to order some new book shelves from one of the Mega-Garden stores. The on-line order somehow aborted in mid-session, and asked us to call an 800 number. I was selected to make the call. They first asked for the order number, which I gave them. So far, so good. Then they asked for the last four digits of my mother's Social Security Number, which I dutifully entered. Unfortunately, it didn't accept it, I was allowed to try it again and again, but still no luck. My head was ready to explode with anger. Having no alternative, and no human being to talk to, I cancelled the order completely.

I also have a problem with this same store where you are supposed to do self-checkout. I personally prefer the classic checkout procedure where you work with a clerk who is concerned about customer satisfaction. I find it rather ironic the self-checkout still requires a human being to make sure you check out properly (and don't steal anything). Where is the improved productivity here?


To me, technology simply represents the tools we use at work and home, and like any tool we can either use it properly or improperly (like shooting ourselves in the foot). Even the finest tool in the wrong hands will produce inferior results. This implies there is more to productivity than the technology itself, that it depends on how the human being uses it. In other words, management is an integral part of the equation, and something sorely lacking in recent times.

Consider this, number crunching has always been one of the prime benefits of computing. If this is true, then why does it take so long to compile a financial report or budget? After all, everything should be available at the push of a button, right? Unfortunately, corporations and government agencies operate with poorly designed systems and data bases, thereby the reliability of data is doubtful, thus requiring rechecking.

So, for those companies claiming their technology improves productivity, "SHOW ME THE PROOF!" Not your test runs, but a company actually using it.

For more information on Productivity, click HERE.

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form.

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

HOLIDAY REPETITION

BRYCE ON LIFE

- It has become rather predictable.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

I happened to visit both my local drug store and supermarket on the day after Christmas. Interestingly, I noticed they were dutifully selling off holiday related food and items at rock-bottom prices, and starting to put out displays for Valentine's Day in February. Of course, I have seen this drill many times before over the years, but it still struck me as odd to see red hearts and exotic chocolates even before the year came officially to an end.

In the United States, we have taken holidays to the sublime as there is something to celebrate or commemorate every day of the year. Fortunately, there are only a handful of "official" holidays requiring the closing of schools, banks, and government offices. Some, like Valentine's Day and Halloween, may not be "official," but represent a marketing bonanza for retailers. The obsession with holidays makes you wonder if Americans ever work anymore.

The main holidays observed by retailers include:

Valentine's Day - February
Presidents' Day - February
Saint Patrick's Day - March
Easter, which is mid-April this year
Mother's Day - May
Memorial Day - May
Father's Day + Graduation - June
Independence Day - 4th of July
Labor Day - September
Halloween - October
Veteran's Day - November
Thanksgiving - November
Christmas - December
New Year's Eve - December

Many people also treat "Opening Day" for major sports as a holiday, as well as championship games. Regardless, these are the holidays retailer's rely on to sell such things as cards, candies, costumes, libations, food, perfumes, and gifts. Car and truck dealerships take it a step further by offering discounts and rebates on vehicles during these holidays. Then again, they offer these same deals throughout the year; they just broadcast more advertising to show their pseudo-holiday spirit. Even television programming changes to match the holidays to put people in the proper mood. Come to think of it, when was the last time you saw a mattress company not have a sale on one of these days?
There are, of course, many more holidays, but these represent the bread-and-butter for sales purposes. These holidays are so repetitious and predictable, you can practically set the time of day by simply walking into a store. Maybe this is all intended to keep us on some sort of timetable to maintain the cash flow of merchants.

Unfortunately, I have been through this so many times, they have killed my holiday spirit. Instead of celebrating such holidays, they have taught me to loathe them, which is rather sad. I guess I just resent merchants telling me what and how to celebrate. Now I know where Scrooge picked up, "Bah! Humbug!"; at Walmart no doubt.

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form.

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Thursday, January 9, 2020

THE ECONOMY: THE BIG WHITE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

BRYCE ON POLITICS

- Always remember: "It's the economy, stupid!"

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

If you are wondering why the Democrats in Congress are so aggressively resisting President Trump, look no further than the big white elephant in the room, the economy. More than anything, the Democrats are terrified of the president's accomplishments in terms of the economy as it poses the single biggest threat to their regaining control of the House, along with winning the Senate and Presidency. They have been putting on a full court press against the president in the hopes the American taxpayer will forget the prosperity triggered by Mr. Trump's policies.

This is why Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D CA-12) made her formal request for articles of impeachment on Thursday, December 5th; one day before the release of the Labor Department’s December report on job growth, the second-biggest monthly gain in the Trump presidency. Knowing such a report of prosperity would hurt them politically, the Democrats tried to preempt it by calling for impeachment, thereby disrupting the news cycle.

If you will excuse the pun, the economy represents the Trump card for the 2020 presidential election. The Democrats have tried to run from it, take credit for it, say that is was a flash in the pan, even calling it a total failure. There is one problem, the Democrats are offering no alternatives other than Socialism and skyrocketing taxes, which would likely cause the economy to go into a tailspin. The Democrats fully understand the political importance of a prosperous economy on the American public, and know it is the biggest obstacle to their success, which explains why we are faced with an impeachment based on flimsy charges and evidence.

These diversionary tactics have been going on since Mr. Trump assumed the presidency. To illustrate:

First, the Democrats claimed it was President Obama's policies, not President Trump's, that pointed the economy in the right direction. In reality, President Obama's true economic record doesn't come anywhere close to President Trump's, and the Democrats know this, but hope they can fool the public. To illustrate, everyone knows manufacturing stalled out at the end of President Obama’s term, yet it has been experiencing a Rennaisance under President Trump. According to Barron's just one year ago, "2018 was the best year for manufacturing job growth in the U.S. since 1997. Factories added 264,000 workers in 2018, up from 176,000 workers in 2017." It was even better in 2019.

Even the Washington Post, one of the president's chief antagonists, had to reluctantly admit the economy is booming, "The November and December data is preliminary, so the numbers could change, but without a doubt, it’s a great result: the largest annual gain in manufacturing jobs since the Great Recession wiped out nearly 1.4 million just in 2009."

Second, the Democrats insist the United States is going into a recession. This is nothing more than political spin. If you study the data, this is simply not true. It is scary the Democrats want to panic the public with a doom-and-gloom scenario, but this is politics and they hope it will trick people into voting for them. Whether you like President Trump or not, it is disturbing the Democrats want to see the country fail.

Third, the Democrats would have us believe the Trump tax cuts only benefit the rich. The tax cuts helped John Q. Public in terms of putting more money in their pockets, which invigorated consumer confidence and led to the largest holiday spending spree in history, thereby propelling business and jobs even farther.

It has also brought more jobs back to our shores. As Bloomberg recently admitted, "Corporations have brought back more than $1 trillion of overseas profits to the U.S. since Congress overhauled the international tax system and prodded companies to repatriate offshore funds, a report showed Thursday." And even more is on the way. It is no small wonder the unemployment numbers have declined sharply, particularly for African-Americans, Latinos, Asians, and women, which will help President Trump at the ballot box, all of which terrifies the Democrats.

The Reshoring Initiative, a group which monitors jobs returning to our shores, insists President Trump is setting records for companies returning jobs to our shores. All of this translates into more jobs, a higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and prosperity for everyone.

It is likely the Democrats will try other diversionary tactics in order to dissuade people from voting for the president. I suspect, they will make some obscure claims that the stock markets, which have reached historic highs recently, will flounder and decline, or maybe claim it is slow and grew faster under Democrat administrations. They may also delay pending trade deals, all of which helps American workers.

All of these false claims and political histrionics is aimed at diverting Americans from the big white elephant in the room, the economy, which will ultimately torpedo Democrat fortunes in 2020, a year of reckoning for them. This is why they refuse to discuss it. We should be celebrating the economy, as opposed to trying to torpedo it. The American public will look past the facade, and likely re-elect the president, making him the most effective president since Theodore Roosevelt.

Just remember, "It's the economy, stupid!"

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form. 

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

THE LOSS OF A SPOUSE

BRYCE ON LIFE

- It is not the same as an elder.

Click for AUDIO VERSION.
To use this segment in a Radio broadcast or Podcast, send TIM a request.

Just before the holidays, I suffered the pain of losing my spouse due to complications resulting from COPD, something she suffered with over the last few years. I cannot begin to describe the incredible pain my family experienced as a result of her passing as it is very personal. I have attended a lot of family funerals over the years, including both pairs of grandparents, a set of great-grandparents, and my father. As much as we mourned their passing, it was somehow to be expected. The passing of a spouse though is different.

One of the first things I observed was the outpouring of sympathy and love by our friends, family, and the community during this terrible hour. We were overwhelmed. As a young man, I learned, "We enjoy life through the help and society of others." This was particularly true since we lost my wife. People were very kind.

From this experience, I have learned there really is a lot of love out there among us, but we have somehow forgotten how to express it. It's a shame we have to wait for tragedy to strike to express our feelings. Love represents such things as acceptance, affection and belonging. When you think about it, we all crave love but are either clumsy or mute in how to express it. There is nothing wrong with a hug, a handshake, a slap on the back, possibly a gentle kiss, or a word of kindness now and then. We, as human-beings, all need it. Just reach out and tell someone how you feel about them; take nothing for granted.

Since my wife's passing, we have been on an emotional roller coaster. I think I've experienced just about everything;

* Denial, that she is gone. I still expect her to be there when I come home, with all her breathing tubes and medicine. In the morning, I used to prepare her medication, her breathing treatment, and her breakfast. I would also pick her a hibiscus flower for her in the morning and set it on the table to brighten her day. She was my delicate flower. Since her passing, I wanted to just hold her hand and talk with her again. I found myself even going into her closet to smell her clothes, just for the memory.

* I also experienced guilt, that I could have done something more in those last few moments, an image which will forever haunt me, but I felt so helpless. I felt like I let her down.

* I even felt a little anger; that she would leave me so suddenly. We all knew her day would come, but we weren't prepared for it so soon. I always thought it should be the husband who passes first.

* In the end, I finally came to the conclusion that it was her time. That her lungs and heart had been through enough. And so, reluctantly, I had to accept she was gone.

Yes, her passing still hurts, but I am starting to figure a few things out; three things in particular:

First, I have learned how frail we are as human beings, both emotionally and physically. So it is important we enjoy every moment God has given us and take nothing for granted. It's the little things in life that are more important than material possessions. For example, I always enjoyed giving her a kiss in the morning, and before going to bed. I still pick a hibiscus for her every morning. And I relished our talks, particularly this past year, and we laughed together, a lot.

Second, I have learned why the emotional pain hurts so much. As I mentioned, the passing of a spouse is different than someone from the family tree. If you have a strong marriage, you become one. Allow me to explain:

As a notary public, I have married a few people over the years. Before doing so, I admonish them that marriage is like dancing the Tango. "It takes two to Tango," and it's a matter of the couple working together as a team, both equals, in a spirit of cooperation, give and take. And if you do it right, it's a beautiful dance; so is a marriage. And when your spouse passes, you are actually losing a piece of yourself, which explains why the pain is so hurtful.

As part of this, I have learned no matter what you do to help or comfort your partner towards the end, I can assure you it's never enough, and you will beat yourself up over it. I know I have.

And third, I have come to the conclusion the pain never goes away; it never subsides; you just have to learn to live with it. There is no magic pill to get you through this, and sometimes you just have to take the pain; plain and simple.

I want to thank those of you for your kindness over our family's tragedy. I cannot believe the overwhelming outpouring of sympathy expressed through cards, calls, and social media comments. I hope I can repay you someday. You really are special people, and I want you to know how much your love has affected us, and the spirit of my wife.

God bless you all, and goodnight my D.F.

Keep the Faith!

P.S. - Also do not forget my books, "How to Run a Nonprofit" and "Tim's Senior Moments", both available in Printed and eBook form. Great holiday gifts!

Note: All trademarks both marked and unmarked belong to their respective companies.

Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

Like the article? TELL A FRIEND.

Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

Listen to Tim on WZIG-FM (104.1) in Palm Harbor,FL; Or tune-in to Tim's channel on YouTube. Click for TIM'S LIBRARY OF AUDIO CLIPS.