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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

WHAT IF TRUMP LOSES TO THE ESTABLISHMENT?

BRYCE ON POLITICS

- Is it the end of the GOP as we know it?

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Let's suppose for a moment that Donald Trump lost the Republican nomination to someone else, be it one of the former nominees or an opportunist such as Mitt Romney. By doing so, it will represent the end of the Republican Party as we know it and the birth of a new political party. It would also mean at least four more years of Democratic rule including more social engineering, and continued decay in American Exceptionalism. To people weary of government incompetence and gridlock, this will be unfathomable.

Businessman Donald Trump is being surrounded and attacked by the Washington Triad, representing politicians, lobbyists, and the press, an incestuous relationship more concerned with money and control, than doing what is best for the American people. To the Triad, an outsider like Mr. Trump is perceived as a genuine threat to this lucrative arrangement. Consequently, he is vilified and constantly under attack by the Triad.

Now we add the GOP establishment, members of Trump's own party who seem to be plotting a coup d'├ętat even if Trump wins the delegate count by the time of the Republican convention in July, now less than four months away. Should Trump make it to Cleveland with less than the required number of delegates (1,237), the nomination will surely be wrestled away from him even if he has the most delegates. If he doesn't have it by then, Trump will have to negotiate a deal with one of the candidates who possess delegates to push him over the top, such as Sen. Cruz, Sen. Rubio, or Gov. Kasich. This is difficult to imagine as there are strained relations between Trump and the other nominees.

The Cruz/Rubio/Kasich grouping will attempt to rally into a coalition of some kind, but even if they are successful, it is unlikely they will have the necessary delegates to win the nomination. One of them will likely split away and negotiate a deal with Trump. My guess is, it will be Gov. Kasich.

If none of the current candidates win, and the party selects a dark horse like Mitt Romney, who has already lost two campaigns for president, the GOP will have committed suicide and will never rise again. This is why either Trump or the coalition must win.

The GOP has to maneuver around this problem delicately. Frankly, it's not certain party chairman Reince Priebus is up to the task, and his political legacy depends on whether or not he can keep the party together. It is disheartening the party gives the appearance they would rather be governed by the elders of the GOP as opposed to the will of the voters. This is a common phenomenon in the 21st century where nonprofit institutions are ruled by power hungry people as opposed to bending to the will of their constituents. Its all about money and control, and you see it everywhere.

A change to the corporate culture scares the hell out of people, be it in a corporation or nonprofit. Personally, I made a lot of enemies over the years as I challenged the Good Old Boy networks. Not surprising, they went after me much like they are going after Trump.

Mr. Trump is changing the corporate culture of the Republican Party by taking a tough no-nonsense, business approach to his campaign, something American voters have not seen in quite some time. The Triad paints him as an ogre but his supporters appreciate his candor and bluntness, thereby causing the Republican ranks to swell.

What we are witnessing with Mr. Trump today is essentially no different than what occurred in the early 1800's with President Andrew Jackson who transformed the Democratic Party by giving the power to populists. Trump is doing the same to the GOP, and party officials do not like it as this is a threat to their authority.

Here is the simple reality the GOP establishment has to come to grips with; if Donald Trump wins the nomination the party will stay together and could very well capture the White House. However, if Trump is not the nominee, the party will implode and likely never come back, ever. It's that simple.

Also published with News Talk Florida.

Keep the Faith!

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Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 30 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb001@phmainstreet.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

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Copyright © 2016 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

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