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Friday, March 20, 2015

WORLD WAR III?

BRYCE ON WAR

- Has it already started?

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Something the media and the White House dares not mention is the concept of World War III as it is considered political poison. For that matter, the president cannot even mention Islamic Terrorism, let alone the concept of a new world war, yet there are some compelling arguments the war has already begun and, as usual, the United States is going to have to play catch up.

As I mentioned last year in "Birth of a Nation," the ISIS movement is gaining in strength. Whereas is was originally confined to Syria and Iraq, it has now spread to Algeria, Yemen, Libya, Indonesia and other places. There have also been terrorist attacks in France, Denmark, Canada, and the United States. Problems are brewing in Europe where Muslims have immigrated and are now politically skirmishing with the native citizens there. This is all reminiscent of Germany at the start of World War II where they "liberated" the Sudetenland, Austria, and Poland. As Naziism spread, it engulfed most of Europe and considerable portions of Northern Africa, the Middle East, and the Soviet Union. Today, ISIS is slowly gaining in stature and spreading throughout the Muslim world. The big prizes though will be Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Europe.

Hitler's fanatical goon squads and SS troops were essentially no different than today's ISIS terrorists. The major differences between them is three-fold; Whereas Naziism was a brand of political ideolog mixing socialism with dictatorship, ISIS is driven by the Islamic religion, complete with Sharia Law. Both were supremacists and claimed their approach would eliminate the social woes of the world.

Second, atrocities were the hallmark of both the Nazis and ISIS. The Nazi concentration camps were used to exterminate the "undesirables" of Europe. Likewise, ISIS is butchering everyone who doesn't agree with their point of view, be it by decapitation, fire, or a bullet to the brain. There is no sense of humanity in any of this. It is also remarkable that antisemitic sentiments are rising once again, just as in Europe before the Nazis marched in.

The third difference between the two is leadership. Whereas Hitler became the demigod for the Third Reich, ISIS hasn't yet found its true leader yet (thankfully). There is much talk about establishing an Islamic "caliphate" which is a form of government led by a "caliph," the political and religious successor to the prophet Muhammad. While the ISIS goon squads remain active, they are awaiting their own demigod to unite them into battle. There are, of course, leaders in the ISIS movement, but nobody has come forward yet as "The Chosen One" or "Mahdi" (the "guided one").

There is the possibility that Iran may become the uniting factor, a country with a stable government, resources, and potentially a nuclear arsenal. It is hard to imagine an Islamic caliphate armed in this manner. Their disregard for humanity would lead us to conclude they wouldn't hesitate to use such weapons, starting with their favorite adversary, Israel. Fortunately, Israel is well armed, including their own nuclear arsenal and would doubtless fight back.

Instead of allowing the Middle East to fester and get worse, now is the time to nip this tinderbox in the bud, before another Hitler comes to power. Estimates of the size of the ISIS military ranges from as few as 20,000 people to 200,000. Their forces may be small and unsophisticated, but they are growing in size and capturing more land every day. To combat their threat, President Obama is primarily offering air power, but this does not seem to be an effective deterrent. After our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, the president is hesitant to send infantry forces. Instead, he is counting on Middle Eastern countries to put boots on the ground.

There is more than one million troops total in the Middle East. On paper, it sounds like an impressive number of troops to be deployed, but aside from Iraq, which has been ineffective thus far, the rest are not battle proven. What they need is someone like the United States, with its military prowess in terms of leadership and technology, to unite the forces, form a strategy, and direct operations. Yet, the president appears unwilling to make such a commitment. Here again we see another example of how the administration leads from behind, and our last analogy.

During the second world war, Britain was led by Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain who wanted to make peace with Hitler despite his acquisition of adjoining countries. Like Obama, Chamberlain knew the British people were tired of war and desperately tried to keep his country out of another one. Receiving a meaningless document from Hitler, Chamberlain naively claimed "Peace in our time," which, of course, was not to be. This delayed Britain in rearming itself and cost them dearly in putting the country on a war footing. Fortunately, Chamberlain resigned which paved the way for Winston Churchill, someone more adept at fighting a war. Chamberlain's naive actions and in-actions are frighteningly similar to those of the president.

Mr. Obama and the media may not like hearing it, but it appears we are entering a viscous third world war, whether we want it or not. From a military perspective, it would be smarter to conquer the problem now as opposed to allowing ISIS to grow in terms of members, resources, and captured territory. If they get the caliph they are looking for, their movement will only grow with resolve. Now is not the time to declare "Peace in our time," but to notify the American people what is going on and what must be done to stop them. The public would be more supportive in such a campaign if they truly knew what was going on and the need to stop it now. If not, we'll have to wait for another Churchill.

Keep the Faith!

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Tim Bryce is a writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 30 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb001@phmainstreet.com

For Tim's columns, see:   timbryce.com

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Copyright © 2015 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.

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