BRYCE ON POLITICS
- Bryce's prediction for the 2020 presidential election.
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It's time for me to announce my prediction for the 2020 presidential election. I was right on the money in 2016 and in 2018 for the mid-term elections, and I did it without the aid of the polls which, as I discovered, are totally useless. Instead, I rely on the voting data received from the Florida Board of Elections which routinely updates their numbers, thereby providing me with the means to study trends. Let me show you how I did it.
Before I begin, please remember in 2016 the Republicans won in Florida under the category of Vote-by-Mail (aka, "Absentee"), the Democrats won the Early-Voting, and the Republicans won the Election Day votes. Things didn't work out quite this way in 2020, which I will explain, but suffice it to say more people will have voted in all three categories in Florida this year than in 2016 (which also set a record at the time).
In 2020, the Democrats started well by running away with the Vote-by-Mail ballots. In fact, this was their preferred voting venue. Two reasons for this, first; the Democrats had an aggressive campaign to get people to vote by mail, and second; Republicans were scared their ballot would be lost or misappropriated and, as such, opted to vote in person instead. Nonetheless, the Democrats built an early lead based on the Vote-by-Mail ballots which became difficult for the Republicans to overcome.
Early-Voting started one week later and lasted two weeks (it will close this Sunday). The Republicans seized on this and never relinquished the lead in this category. In the Tampa Bay metro area alone, all of the counties were dominated by the Republicans, including Hillsborough, a Democrat stronghold. Then, slowly but surely, the Republicans took control of the total votes. As we approach election day next week, the Republicans will find themselves in the lead, and will likely turn out in record numbers on election day (as they have done historically). In contrast, the Democrats voted early through Vote-by-Mail. Prior to election day, well over 50% of the registered Democrats had voted. Normally, only 66% of registered Democrats vote overall, but even if they get to the 70% or 75% plateau on election day, it will not be enough to stop the Republican tsunami at the voting booth. As an aside, 75% of registered Republicans typically vote in a presidential election, but I suspect this number will go higher this year.
One other note worth mentioning, independent voters also flexed their muscle in Florida's elections, setting another voting record. In 2016, Independents helped carry Mr. Trump across the finish line. I cannot help but believe they will do likewise in 2020 as many are disturbed by the violence and mayhem in Democrat controlled cities. Even if it is a 50/50 split, it will be good for Republicans.
Click HERE for my spreadsheet showing Florida/Tampa Bay voting data.
In the final analysis, unless there is some massive voter fraud, President Donald Trump is going to win re-election. From the data I have seen, he will win Florida handily, and as Florida goes, so goes the country (as evidenced by the 2016 election).
The key to all of this is the enthusiasm of the voters, pitting the Silent Majority against the "Haters." I say the "Haters" as I do not truly believe they embrace their candidate, former VP Joe Biden, as much as they hate President Trump. In contrast, the Silent Majority is a movement of people who openly support the president and demonstrated in his favor at numerous Flag rallies, Automobile rallies, and Boat rallies, the largest of which was over 2,000 in nearby Clearwater, Florida, thereby setting a world record. This was all done at the grassroots level by volunteers. Here in Florida, there were some occasional flag rallies for Mr. Biden, but I learned many people were paid to wave Biden signs and flags, just the antithesis of the Trump supporters. This is when I knew President Trump was going to win as he possessed the true support of the people.
I also call the Biden supporters "Haters" as I have personally seen members of their group yell and scream obscenities at Trump supporters unprovoked. It is crude and offensive to a lot of people, particularly children. Unfortunately, I witnessed this too many times. The Democrats like to portray President Trump as the "Divider-in-Chief," but in reality, it is their own party imbued in hate. They are simply classless.
I also find it disturbing to see so many Trump signs and flags defaced or stolen. When was the last time you saw a Biden sign stolen? No, I cannot think of an instance either. Unfortunately, the "Haters" believe this is morally acceptable to do.
We also see signs of the Silent Majority at Trump Rallies featuring the president, where thousands of people attend and cling to his words. Contrast this to the few Biden Rallies which are sparsely attended.
As in 2016, the polls were dead wrong. Once again they will be embarrassed by the elections. How can anyone take them seriously? I, for one, do not, which is why I rely on actual voter data instead. The numbers I use are real. The numbers the polls use are fake and produce fallacious results. Further, the Main Stream Media will also suffer another black eye in terms of credibility as they have obviously become nothing more than shills for the DNC.
Bottom-line: Just as in 2016, the Democrats will be crying come election night.
As an aside, just because I can confidently call the race here doesn't mean the race is over. Instead, I encourage everyone to get out the vote, regardless of your political persuasion.
Finally, let me be the first to say, "Congratulations President Trump."
Keep the Faith!
P.S. - Also, I have a NEW book, "Before You Vote: Know How Your Government Works", What American youth should know about government, available in Printed, PDF and eBook form. This is the perfect gift for youth!
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Tim Bryce is an author, freelance writer and the Managing Director of M&JB Investment Company (M&JB) of Palm Harbor, Florida and has over 40 years of experience in the management consulting field. He can be reached at timb1557@gmail.com
For Tim's columns, see: timbryce.com
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Copyright © 2020 by Tim Bryce. All rights reserved.
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